Social change builds community-based
responses that address underlying social problems on
an individual, institutional, community, national
and/or international level. Social change can change
attitudes, behaviours, laws, policies and
institutions to better reflect values of inclusion,
fairness, diversity and opportunity. Social change
involves a collective action of individuals who are
closest to the social problems to develop solutions
that address social issues. For any social change to
occur, one must be able to see the result of a
vision that depicts the change. “You must see the
change as if it has already happened.
This is the only way that one can
articulate the steps needed to take to make the
vision come true. The vision must be intentions for
a better future than what currently exists at any
giving time. This vision must:
·
Be understood among a collective, so
others can share in the vision;
·
Empower and engage people to want to
take action;
·
Be well defined and articulated;
·
Be vivid, engaging, inclusive and
expressive.
The first step in engaging a
collective action in the vision for change is to
know what it is that people would like to change.
What underlying issues are they trying to address?
Are they working towards eliminating ethnic
chauvinism in the community? Is it about ensuring
every child is healthy, safe, and secure? Is it to
reduce crime and violence in the communities? Is it
to address banditry and kidnappings in the community
head-on or the provision of tools for empowerment to
everyone irrespective of ethnicity/tribe, social
class, and religious beliefs or even political
affiliation? One must be able to identify that one
key issue (s) to address that can make a difference
in the community and/or society. Using the term
protracted social conflict (PSC), to identify the
type of crisis that has persisted, which is
different from traditional disputes over territory,
economic resources, or North-South rivalry and it
was distinctive, most of all because it revolved
around questions of communal identity and grudge.
Four clusters are identified as variables that act
as preconditions for potential conflicts'
transformation to high levels of intensity.
Precondition I: Communal Content:
The most useful analysis in
protracted social conflict (PSC) situations is the
identity group: racial, religious, ethnic, and
cultural; and others. Linking the disjunction
between state and society as in many parts of the
world to a colonial legacy which artificially
imposed European ideas of territorial statehood onto
different communal groups on the principle of
“divide-and-rule” As a result, in many post-colonial
multi-cultural/communal societies the state
machinery is dominated by a single communal group or
a coalition of a few communal groups who are
unresponsive to the needs of other groups in the
society. This strains the social fabric and
eventually breeds fragmentation, thus feeding into
the other factors which produce PSC.
Precondition II: Deprivation of
Needs:
As postulated by Azar, deprivation of
human needs as the underlying source of PSC, in
particular, security needs, development needs,
political access needs, and identity needs (cultural
and religious expression). In the approach taken by
Azar, people's security can only be provided for by
the meeting of these needs. Security is not a
“stand-alone” idea but is linked to needs for
development and political access. The reduction of
overt conflict required a reduction in levels of
underdevelopment. Groups who seek to satisfy their
identity and security needs through conflict are in
effect seeking changes in the structure of their
society. In this case, conflict resolution can only
occur if societies can also develop economically. In
this way, peace is linked to development and job
opportunities because development in all
ramifications (poverty reduction, wealth creation,
healthy environment, social cohesion etc.) is the
satisfaction of needs, which, if they remain
unsatisfied, will propel people into conflict.
Precondition III: State and
Governance:
The role of the state and the nature
of its governance is a critical factor in
determining the satisfaction or frustration of
individual and identity group needs. Most states in
which PSC happens tend to be characterized by
incompetent, parochial, fragile, and authoritarian
governments. The weakness of the state is a crucial
factor in provoking these conflicts for three
reasons. Firstly, in Western liberal theory,
the state is supposed to act as an impartial (just)
arbiter of conflicts, treating all members of the
political community as legally equal citizens. This
is not what happens: political authority tends to be
monopolized by the dominant identity group which
uses the state to maximize their interests at the
expense of others. Secondly, the monopolizing
of power by dominant individuals and groups and the
limiting of access to other groups creating a crisis
of legitimacy, so that excluded groups have no
loyalty or attachment to the state and may then seek
to secede from it or to take it over completely. Thirdly, PSCs tend to occur in developing
countries which are typically characterized by rapid
population growth and a limited economic resource
base. This also means that they have a restricted
political capacity. They often have a colonial
legacy where they have had weak or non-existent
participatory institutions or a hierarchical
tradition of imposed bureaucratic rule from above.
They may also have inherited instruments of
political repression. This limited and inflexible
political capacity prevents the state from
responding to, and meeting, the needs of all its
citizens.
Precondition IV: International
Linkage:
The concept of international linkage
refers particularly to political-economic relations
of economic dependency within the international
economic system. The internal factors generated by
the first three preconditions become complicated and
exacerbated by the spread of the conflict across the
borders of the state. A network of
political-military linkages develops as both the
state authorities and the rebelling groups look for
regional and global sources of support. This is
already happening in Nigeria, as in the case of the
SARS protest in Oct 2020 but Nigeria must do
everything possible to avoid a similar conflict in
Rwanda in the 90s at all cost.
Restoring Co-Operation and Trust:
Peace Building-From-Below
Effective and sustainable peacemaking
processes must be based not only on the
manipulation of peace initiatives but equally
importantly on the empowerment of communities torn
apart by the crisis, meaning, building peace from
below. There are important lessons to be learned
from the experiences of peacekeeping operations in
the 1990s. Firstly, in the course of civil wars,
cultures and economies of violence develop and
provide formidable barriers to constructive
intervention. In these conflicts, simple,
one-dimensional interventions - whether by
traditional mediators aiming at formal peace
agreements or peacekeepers placed to supervise
cease-fires or overseeing of elections - are
unlikely to produce a comprehensive or lasting
resolution. Secondly, formal peace agreements need
to be underpinned by understandings, structures and
long-term development frameworks that will erode
cultures of violence and sustain peace processes on
the ground.
Thirdly, it is important to recognize
the role of local chiefs/imams and groups, citizens’
initiatives, and the non-governmental sector and the
effect of participatory approaches to peacemaking.
These provide vital links with local knowledge and
resources. These groups are important because they
provide the source of sustainable citizen-based
peacebuilding initiatives. They open-up
participatory public political spaces to allow
institutions of civil society to flourish. If this
process does not happen then the conflict is likely
to remain, and the crisis may continue for a long
period without a solution.
Ethno-Conflict:
To understand conflict behaviour,
Avruch and Black argue that it is necessary to
attend to the local understandings of being and
action which people use in the production and
interpretation of conflict behaviour. They refer to
this cultural knowledge as an ethnic-conflict
theory or, simply, the local common-sense about
conflict. The ethno-conflict theory is influenced by
a set of complex, interdependent determinants that
vary cross-cultures, including language, social,
political, religious and economic structures, values
and psychology (or, “ethno psychology” – the local
assumptions about people and relationships). In
terms of this analytical framework, these
determinants are not sources of conflict (although,
outside of the framework they may lead to conflict);
they are variables within a cultural system that,
over time, influence the thinking and behaviour of
the individuals in the group. In addition to
prescribing the rules for conflict regulation within
a given society, the ethnic-conflict theory may also
inform outsiders of the most appropriate strategies
for intervention.
Ethno-Praxes:
Ethno-praxes
are the
corresponding conflict resolution techniques and
practices. All human groups have developed their
ways of responding to conflict. There is,
consequently, an abundance of culturally constituted
techniques and processes, both formal and informal
ethno-praxes, for managing and resolving conflict
around the world.
At Macro-Level:
At the macro-level, the international
community frequently prescribes linear, top-down,
state-centric (official) conflict management aimed
at the leadership of the conflicting parties (i.e.,
usually men, and often warlords and faction leaders
without the majority support of the community).
Often, local community leaders are not consulted and
there is a failure to recognize and build upon the
cultural strengths and resources of the local
community (i.e., Peace Building-from below). There
is an assumption that this approach is “right”,
without considering the reality of the conflict on
the ground as viewed by the people directly
involved. An example of an attempt to establish
stability is the negotiated settlement package that
focuses on democratic elections aimed at
re-establishing political authority. Yet, this
approach may not be traditionally appropriate or
culturally accepted, as seen in the Paris Peace
Agreements during the operation in Cambodia, or the
national reconciliation conferences initiated by
UNOSOM in Somalia. The short-term, “quick-fix”
approach ignores or trivializes the bottom-up
perspective that focuses on long-term conflict
transformation. In other words, peacekeeping and
peacemaking are separated from Peace Building.
Serious attention must be given to the
cultural and religious applicability of the conflict
resolution processes employed by the intervention
and its participants.
At Micro-Level:
It is important to understand how
culture and religion influence the interpersonal
interactions between culturally and religiously
diverse individuals and groups. The purpose here is
to understand the dynamics of these differences
before they lead to misunderstandings and
conflict at the micro-level, which, in conflict
resolution terms, may obstruct the macro-level
intervention process. This includes awareness of
cultural differences in perspectives toward conflict
and conflict resolution, worldview, verbal and
non-verbal language (e.g., space, touch, gestures,
facial expressions, use of time, comments and
certain beliefs, values and even perception of
things), and cultural and religious rituals and
practices.
Conflict Mapping
Conflict Mapping is the first step
for intervening in a conflict. It gives both the
intervener and the conflict parties a clearer
understanding of the origins, nature, dynamics and
possibilities for resolution of the conflict. It is
a way of presenting a systematic analysis of a
particular conflict at a particular moment in time.
Conflict mapping is a tool used by conflict analysts
and it is widely used in conflict resolution
workshops to provide participants with a snapshot of
the conflict under consideration. A conflict map
does not of course, aim to solve the conflict; it
attempts to identify questions and issues that must
be taken into account in any intervention strategy.
A conflict map should be understood to be indicative
rather than comprehensive.
This is followed up by further
analysis using the information in the map to
identify the scope for conflict resolution,
preferably carried out with the help of the parties
or embedded third parties. This should identify:
-
Changes in the context which
could alter the conflict situation, including
the interests and capacities of third parties to
influence it;
-
Changes within and between the
conflict parties, including internal leadership
struggles, varying prospects for military
success, and the readiness of general
populations to express support for the
government initiatives;
-
Possible ways of redefining goals
and finding alternative means of resolving
differences, including forced mediation and
suggested steps towards peace and eventual
transformation;
-
Likely constraints on these; and
how these might be overcome.
For the specific needs of
peacekeepers like the Niger Delta Development
Commission (NDDC) and North East Development
Commission (NEDC), there should be ongoing efforts
to review the operational priorities of their
mandate concerning the changing realities of the
conflict, and constantly access the situation and
monitor early warning of potential conflicts.
Early Warning:
Early warning aims to monitor
particular areas of potential conflict, and seek
ways to act early enough to thwart potential
conflict or crisis; or its escalation. There are two
tasks involved here: first, identification of
the type of conflicts and location of the conflicts
that could become violent; second, monitoring
and assessing their progress to assess how close to
violence they are, or in the case of an on-going
crisis, what factors could fuel its escalation. One
line of approach aims to establish the circumstances
under which violence is likely to take place. The
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
suggests several indicators of conflict proneness in
states, listed below.
Indicators of States at Risk:
-
Demographic pressures (high
infant mortality, rapid population change, high
population density, youth bulge, food or water
shortage, ethnic groups sharing land,
environmental pressures, widespread poverty,
cultural and religion dimension);
-
Lack of democratic practices
(human rights violations, marginalization,
criminalization, de-legitimization,
exclusiveness);
-
The ethnic composition of the
ruling elite differing from that of the
population at large;
-
Deterioration or elimination of
public services or lack of access;
-
Sharp and severe economic
distress (uneven economic development along
ethnic lines, lack of trade openness and
resource sharing);
-
A legacy of vengeance-seeking
group vigilance;
-
Massive, chronic or sustained
human flight.
There are possible responses to these
situations in specific cases. In terms of the theory
of early warning and conflict prevention, the
indicators suggested above might call upon light Preventions, which include:
-
Flexible and accommodating state
actions and strategies;
-
Moderate “communal” actions and
strategies on the part of the leaders of
challenging groups;
-
Mutually de-escalators “built-in
mechanisms” of conflict management.
And Deep Preventions,
which include:
-
Adequate political institutions
and good governance;
-
Cohesive social structures and
the rule of law;
-
Opportunities for groups to
develop economically, culturally and
religiously;
-
The presence of accepted legal or
social norms capable of accommodating and
peacefully transforming these formations.
For example, research on ethnicity
suggests that preventions of ethnic conflict
include:
Mapping-Out Ways to Prevent Conflicts
from Happening:
More recently, analysts have located
the sources of contemporary conflict at the global
level, regarding conflict as local manifestations of
global processes. The main focus here is on what
Paul Rogers describes as three interlinked trends:
-
Deep inequalities in the global
distribution of wealth and economic power;
-
Human-induced environmental
constraints exacerbated by excessive energy
consumption, bills for house rent/maintenance,
costly living condition and social amenities,
etc., making it difficult for human well-being
to be improved by conventional economic growth;
-
The continuing militarization of
security relations, including the further
proliferation of drugs and lethal weaponry.
As a result of these trends, a
combination of wealth-poverty disparities, limits to
growth and poverty may contribute to future
unsatisfied expectations. At the end of the
twentieth century, 1/7 of the world's population
controlled 3/4 of its wealth, and 3/4 of humanity
live in developing countries, a proportion which has
been rising.
In this context, forecasters are
giving serious consideration to predictions of a
coming generation of conflicts fuelled by both local
and global economic turbulence, environmental
deterioration, north-south (and other) political
tensions, drugs and weapons proliferation, and
international crime impacting on “weak states”. As
traditional patterns of authority and order are
weakened, exclusionist policies linked to ethnic and
religious identities emerge as alternative sources
of loyalty. Looking at the kind of analysis
considered here, most of the conflicts bedevilling
Nigeria (insurgency, communal crisis, kidnappings,
armed banditry, farmer-header crisis, religious
crisis, etc.); largely that turned brutally violent
are completely predictable and thus preventable.
Conflict Mapping and Prevention
Techniques:
According to Tom Woodhouse, when the
mapmakers of the old world came across terra
incognita or unknown territory, they sometimes wrote
on their maps, "beyond here be dragons". For
peacekeepers and others working in contemporary
conflict zones, there are dragons aplenty in the
terra incognita of complex emergencies and
protracted social conflicts (PSCs). A particular
conflict can be understood and prevented by the use
of conflict mapping and conflict tracking
techniques.
Moving from how conflict, in general,
can be understood at the macro-level, to how
particular conflicts can be understood through a
conflict mapping analysis at the micro-level (i.e.,
the parts of a specific conflict). One of the first
conflict mapping frameworks in Conflict Resolution
was developed by Paul Wehr, from whom the guide here
is adapted. The analysis of conflict is a necessary
precondition for successful management and
resolution. Conflict mapping provides a method by
which to apply the broader guidelines provided by
conflict analysis. Conflict mapping gives a clearer
understanding of the origins, nature, dynamics and
possibilities for resolution of the conflict; and
profiling gives a clearer opportunity to predict
future conflicts and take measures to prevent them
from happening. A conflict map is an initial
snapshot, to be regularly updated by
conflict tracking and profiling techniques
aimed at predicting a coming
generation of conflicts fuelled by ethnicity,
social, religious, political, communal or otherwise
(analysis of a group
or person's psychological, behavioural
characteristics, violent tendencies to assess or
predict their capabilities in a certain sphere;
and address their root causes to prevent them from
starting a crisis).
This
will include the use of algorithms or other
mathematical techniques that allow the discovery of
patterns or correlations in large quantities of
data, aggregated in databases for the purpose.
The framework below provides a
starting point by which one can gain orientation and
a good working understanding of the background to a
conflict and to the actors and the issues they are
pursuing. This analysis can be built upon and made
more complex by adding other mapping features, for
example, Section D. The relevance of this level of
analysis will depend on the responsibilities held.
Higher-level analysis of this kind is more likely to
be conducted by those with strategic policy analysis
roles in the military, diplomatic and political
arenas. To map-out well, unless the nature and
political intensity of a conflict arena is
understood, the outside intervention will be
ineffective, if not counter-productive. Also, the
cultural and religious dynamics of the conflict and
its local peculiarity and population must be fully
taken into consideration to avoid inappropriate and
insensitive intervention processes.
Conflict Mapping Framework /Guide
|
|
CONFLICT (CRISIS) MAPPING
FRAMEWORK /GUIDE
A. Conflict Background
1. Map of the area
2. Brief description of the
region/country
3. Outline the history of the
conflict.
B. The Conflict Parties
1. Who are the core conflict
parties?
2. What are the conflict
issues/demands?
-
Is it possible to distinguish
between positions, interests (material
interests, values, relationships) and needs?
3. What are the relationships
between the conflict parties?
4. What are the different
perceptions of the causes and nature of the
conflict among the conflict parties?
5. What is the current
behaviour of the partie
6. Who are the leaders of the
parties?
-
At the
elite/individual
level, what are
their
objectives,
policies, and
interests and
demands?
-
What are their
relative
strengths and
weaknesses?
C. Peacemaking Activities
1. What efforts have been
made in the past to resolve the conflict?
2. What efforts are being
made to resolve the conflict presently?
-
What is the role
of a mediator
(s)/peacekeeper
likely to be?
-
Is the role
clear?
-
Do they have the
expertise and
resources to
manage?
-
Who else in the
area is involved
in peacemaking
efforts (either
internal or
external
groups)?
-
Are they aware
of other
individuals or
organizations in
the area with
which you might
liaise?
ADVANCED LEVEL OF ANALYSIS
D. National, Regional and
State Level Context
1. National Level
-
Is the nature of
the state
contested?
-
Are there
institutions or
organizations
that could
provide
legitimate
spaces for
managing the
conflict?
-
Regional and
Local Level
-
How do relations
with
neighbouring
states and local
societies affect
the conflict?
-
Do the parties
have
regional/state/local
supporters?
Which
regional/state/local
actors may or
may not be
trusted by the
conflict
parties?
3. International Level
ADVERSARY PREDICTION
(Analysis of a group or
person's psychological, behavioural
characteristics, violent tendencies to
assess or predict their capabilities in a
certain sphere;
and address their root causes to prevent
them from starting a crisis.
This will include the use of
human intelligence as well as algorithms or
other mathematical techniques that allow
the discovery of patterns or correlations in
large quantities of data, aggregated
in databases for the purpose).
-
Is the adversary
satisfied with its
current position or
demand?
-
What likely future
moves or strategy
shifts will the
adversary make and
how dangerous are
they?
-
Where is the
adversary
vulnerable?
-
What will provoke
the greatest and
most damaging
retaliation by the
adversary?
-
What will make the
adversary withdraw
and reach a
concession?
|
Lesson:
On April 6, 1994, the Rwandan
genocide directed against Tutsis and politically
moderate Hutus began. During the period, an
estimated 500,000 - 800,000, and in some estimates
possibly up to one million people were killed in the
course of the genocidal civil war. Over two million
people fled to become refugees in neighbouring
countries, and up to one million became displaced
within Rwanda. The conflict and its aftermath
continue to trouble the Great Lakes Region within
which Rwanda is situated. Ethnic Conflict must be
prevented at all costs.
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